Insights, analysis, and updates from the National Introducing Brokers Association
Get the latest on volatility, volume, spreads and more...... This month's update includes: Low implied volatility for Grains & Oilseeds Call skew higher for Grains & Oilseeds Hog & Feeder volatility elevated VIEW FULL REPORT
Earlier this year, crude oil bounced off its multi-year low, and many market participants are now trying to determine where crude will head in the near future. Thus, it seemed timely to examine the seasonality of the front month of WTI Crude Oil futures to offer possible paths it may take. Chart 1 finds three important points of discussion regarding crude oil's historical seasonality: The 30-year average front-month futures contract has hovered between $40 and $45. The current price as of June 20, 2016, is around the 30-year average price $CL_F front month. So it is right on par with the 30-year average performance. The 30-year seasonality shows a tendency for the market to decline in the second half of the year. This doesn't mean the second half of the year will see a decline, but only a tendency for it to occur. Chart 1: 30-Year Seasonality of WTI Crude...
